# #StackBounty: #poisson-distribution #survey #pattern-recognition #sequential-pattern-mining Probability of successful charging based on…

### Bounty: 100

I tried my best to find a solution, but failed to find a decent one.
Imagine I want to charge a customer and I have last three days of random charge try data:

``````  +----   Date     ------   Time  ------ Amount  ------  Status ------+
|     2018/05/05    |     08:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/05    |     12:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/05    |     16:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/05    |     20:00    |     500      |       OK        | <-
+-------------------+--------------+--------------+-----------------+
|     2018/05/06    |     08:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/06    |     12:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/06    |     16:00    |     500      |       OK        |
+-------------------+--------------+--------------+-----------------+
|     2018/05/07    |     08:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/07    |     12:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/07    |     16:00    |     500      |       OK        |  <-
+-------------------+--------------+--------------+-----------------+
|     2018/05/08    |     08:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/08    |     12:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/08    |     20:00    |     500      |       --        |
|     2018/05/08    |     22:00    |     500      |       OK        |  <-
+-------------------+--------------+--------------+-----------------+
``````

1- What is the best way to find probability of a success charge on 11:00 O’clock tomorrow?

2- I also have access to 2K user’ historical data. How can I use that data to improve probability accuracy?

EDIT:
we have some random data (we could not predict by any analysis solution what happen in future), we guess there might be some pattern between different variables (person cell number, week, day, hour, amount of charge) , how could we find this pattern?

Get this bounty!!!

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