#StackBounty: #python #tensorflow #forecasting How do I validate this Kalman model for estimation of undocumeted covid cases?

Bounty: 100

Tensorflow recently made a tutorial titled Estimation of undocumented SARS-CoV2 cases. It replicates 6th March 2020 paper by Li et al titled Substantial Undocumented Infection Facilitates the Rapid Dissemination of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). It is a compartment based SEIR model where the population is represented by a state with compartments Susceptible, Exposed, Undocumented Infectious and Documented Infectious.

I am trying to test the validity of this model by training it with data for 30 days, and forecast the state for next 15 days. I did find the optimal parameters of the model and current state, but I am not sure how I can use it to predict future states. I have been attempting this for almost a week now. The programming style in the notebook is quite unfamiliar to me, hence, I am struggling to figure out how exactly to do it.

I request someone with more experience to go through the notebook once and give me suggestions about how to predict the states.

Thank you!


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