*Bounty: 50*

*Bounty: 50*

The paper reads:

Fisher immediately realized that this argument fails because every

possible result with the 6 pairs has probability (1/2)^6 = 1/64, so

every result is significant at 5%. Fisher avoided this absurdity by

saying that any outcome with just I W and 5 R’s, no matter where that

W occurred, is equally suggestive of discriminatory powers and so

should be included. There are 6 such possibilities, including the

actual outcome, so the relevant probability for (a) above is 6(1/2)^6

= 6/64 = .094, so now the result is not significant at 5%.

I do not understand how 1/64 is significant at 5% but 6/64 is not. It makes more sense to me that bigger of two numbers would be deemed significant as it describes something that happens more often.

What is wrong with my reasoning?